Predictions

Last March I commented that the Democrats could not take over Congress because the electorial math did not work out - there just were not enough competative seats for the Democrats to get fifteen new seats. While that may still be true, it is a lot more exciting and at least possible that fifteen or more GOP incumbents will be ousted.

The election gets much more exciting if one pays attention to specific races. For instance, two time incumbent Mike Ferguson who is a hardcore Bush follower and about as far to the right as Rick Santorum to the West is in a tight race with Linda Stender. The New York times says that the district is leaning Ferguson, but some polls have it as a statistical dead heat.

The district has been cleverly drawn to support the GOP candidates by incorporating much of the western part of New Jersey. So the fact that there is a possibility that Ferguson will lose is a significant statement of the local and national political sentiment.

This of course should be contrasted with what is thought to be a more liberal district to the north, which ironically has an even more conservative GOP incumbent, Scott Garrett. He is being challenged by Paul Aronsohn, who held a position in government with the Clinton administration and Governor McGreevey's administration. It does not appear that it is going to be a close election there regardless of the reasons for Aronsohn's strong political resume.

What is known, is that November 7 is going to be a very interesting night, one that should be watched closely by all.